Topic Of The Week
THE FOURTH QUARTER: Trends Have Changed
A regular quarterly survey conducted by the central bank’s economic analysis and forecasting department among 1,241 top managers has again recorded a negative difference between the number of answers stating that «the state of the business is good» and «the state of the business is bad.» It was minus 0.4 notches, which is five points lower than in the previous quarter. It seems that the improvement in entrepreneurs’ moods expected by the authorities has failed to materialize. In fact, the number of respondents who evaluate the state of their business as good went down from 235 to 200 people, while the share of top managers describing the situation at the companies they run as bad rose from 185 to 210. And although the index of business expectations remained almost unchanged (at 119 points), 150 of those polled believe that the situation in 2012 will worsen in the country (earlier their number was 120).
Anti-counterfeit Campaign
MONEY VS. VIOLATION
Last week the Ukrainian parliament upheld an initiative put forth by the Energy and Coal Industry Ministry to toughen the penalties for illegal interference in oil and gas transportation infrastructure. The initiative was focused mainly in an increase in financial penalties, therefore after it comes into effect, it is most likely that the sum of kickbacks [paid to avoid punishment] will increase, rather than the number of violations decrease.
Scandals
THE SCANDAL OF THE WEEK: Corporation TES Owes Money To Kerch Port
WHAT COULD IT MEAN?
The owners and managers of the TES Corporation, Hennadiy Beima and Serhiy Beima, were detained on Wednesday by Crimean prosecution officers. As the deputy prosecutor, Oleh Lemeshev, said they had been detained on suspicion of committing a crime under Article 365 of the Criminal Code – abuse of power or office, resulting in UAH 1.9 million in damages.
Forecast
WHAT’S GOING ON…
The year 2012 has hardly begun, but already the markets have seen a rush spurred on not only by world’s mass media, echoing politicians. What an information campaign about Iran! Don’t forget the situation in Nigeria! All of a sudden they have started fretting over the Iranian nuclear program and the possible aggravation of social conflicts in Nigeria. What is more, the markets have already started worrying about a possible shortage of oil. This has affected the dynamics of prices of raw materials on exchanges…
NOTHING TO DISTURB STABILITY
According to the economic forecasts given by the Psyche Center on the basis of a regressive analytical model, the prices of major brands of fuel will not change significantly this week. The average retail price of A-92 and A-95 petrol to DSTU 4063:2001 standards and winter-type 0.2-62 diesel fuel to DSTU 3868-99 standards will be UAH 10.03, UAH 10.27 and UAH 9.65 per liter respectively.
Trade
STRICT ORDER
In the first working week of the New Year, there were two events that will in some way have an impact on the fuel market in the country. First, they have finally published a law on indexing fuel excise duties to the inflation rate (8.79%), which was signed by the president on January 10, 2012, despite numerous violations during its preparation and adoption by the Verkhovna Rada. Secondly, the national media learned about a decision by the Economic Development Ministry to extend the «old» DSTU 4063:2001 and DSTU 3868-99 standards for petrol and diesel fuel for another six months (until July 1). And though nothing unexpected has happened, an unpleasant aftertaste still lingers.
Raw Materials
ONE-SIDED MOVEMENT
On January 10, 2012, the official Web site of the President announced that an «agreement between the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine and the government of Azerbaijan on measures concerning the development of cooperation in transportation of oil across Ukraine,» had been signed by the head of state. Theoretically 16-20 million tonnes of Caspian oil are to fill in our pipelines, but in practice there will be hardly 2 million tonnes.
You can read full articles in journal «Terminal: Oil Review» №2 (587) 16 Jan 2012
